Skip to main content
Shedeur Sanders headshot
Position: QuarterbackP Tier

Shedeur Sanders

QB · CLE · Bye 11

Age 246'2"212 lbs1 yr
FFT9956

Elite Profile

Calibrated public rating

RAW 54 · 91% cov

Projection

12.8

Half-PPR / game

Market ADP

241.5

Consensus overall

FFT fair value

239.2

Calibrated pick

Draft delta

+2.3

Market minus FFT

Draft recommendation

Target ahead of market

Risk / reliability

Medium Risk

57
Risk: Medium

Reliability

57 / 99

Coverage

80%

Live board

Today's Read

NO MARKET DATA

Scored 8 TDs on 13 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies about 10.75. Finishing that far below expectation tends to regress upward, and the market is still pricing the 8.

Model rank

Market

—

Confidence

low

Full analysis

2026 week 1

Weekly Outlook

FFT · BDL · SLEEPER · MARKETS

The BALLDONTLIE weekly outlook is unavailable for this player right now. The rest of the profile remains live.

Measured 2026 · Regular season

Season Production

Loading 2026 results…

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.

2026 / Player Game Center

Every play has a story.

Shedeur Sanders · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.

Loading game data…

Measured game log

Weekly Performance

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.

No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Shedeur Sanders yet.

This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.

FFT Newsroom

Latest news for Shedeur Sanders

All reports

Position-relative

FFT99 Pillar Scores

Methodology

Fantasy Scoring Dominance

62

Average

62

Top 29% at QB

Rushing Leverage

50

Watch

50

Top 38% at QB

Replacement + Draft Economics

74

Strong

74

Top 26% at QB

Passing Engine

44

Watch

44

Top 42% at QB

Offensive Ecosystem

25

Watch

25

Top 76% at QB

Fantasy Playoff Schedule

64

Average

64

Top 21% at QB

Player Profile

Fantasy Scoring Dominance62
Rushing Leverage50
Replacement + Draft Economics74
Passing Engine44
Offensive Ecosystem25
Fantasy Playoff Schedule64

Games

8

Half-PPR

84.9

Total TD

8

Model Component Contributions

The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.

Proj Ppg
14%
Value Over Replacement
13%
Prior Ppg
9%
Boom Rate
7%
Rush Ypg
6%
Floor Rate
5%
Designed Attempts
5%
Scramble Rate
3%

Draft Economics

Value Over Replacement

-50.0

proj. half-PPR pts

Rank Delta

+8

position spots vs ADP

Value Grade

A

Great Value

reachfair valuesteal

Market

241.5

FFT value

239.2

Board Δ

+2.3

Playoff Schedule

Week 15

@ NYG

Rank 8th

Elite

Week 16

@ BAL

Rank 12th

Great

Week 17

vs IND

Rank 15th

Great

FFT99 vs ADP

Every dot is a real position peer with a market price.

Shedeur SandersCONSENSUS ADP →FFT99 →

Deep research dossier

Evidence, history and model transparency

The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.

The call record

Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.

No pre-registered call was made on Shedeur Sanders. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.

2025 production

What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.

Games

8

PPR pts

84.9

Half-PPR pts

84.9

PPR / game

10.6

Receiving

Targets

0

Receptions

0

Rec yards

0

Rec TDs

0

Target share

0.0%

Air yards share

0.0%

WOPR

0.00

Rushing

Carries

21

Rush yards

169

Rush TDs

1

Yards / carry

8.05

Passing

Pass yards

1400

Pass TDs

7

Interceptions

10

nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0040668). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.

What the market says

Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.

Consensus ADP

241.5

Median

241.5

Sources ranking him

2/3

Agreement

Low

SourceRank / ADP
Yahoo ADPunranked
Sleeper ADP272.0
RTSports ADP211.0

The sources that ranked him disagree by 61.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 30.5).

Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.

Week-to-week, 2025

Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.

Weeks with a line

8

PPR / game

10.6

Std dev

9.3

Coeff. of variation

0.87

Boom rate

13% (1/8)

Bust rate

88% (7/8)

Best week

33.5 wk 14

Worst week

1.5 wk 11

Recent form — last 4 games with a line

7.3 PPR per game over weeks 15, 16, 17, 18 — -3.3 against his season average.

Every week (8 lines)
WkOppPPRTgtRecYdsCarRuYdTDRZ
11BAL1.500031600
12LV10.30001-110
13SF10.60001610
14TEN33.500032946
15CHI3.500022404
16BUF11.200044914
17PIT9.400042010
18CIN5.000032601

The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0040668. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.

This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (QB: boom ≥ 25, bust ≤ 15) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.

Advanced usage & efficiency

Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.

Red-zone opportunity

Scoring upside

RZ targets

0

RZ carries

19

RZ TDs

4

aDOT

—

Concept EPA / target

—

Classified targets

—

Catch residual

—

YAC over expected

—

Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.

How the model gets there

The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.

Projected games

16.3

Half-PPR (season)

208.1

PPR (season)

208.1

Confidence

medium

Proj targets

0.2

Proj receptions

0.1

Proj rec yards

0

Proj rec TDs

0.0

Proj carries

47.3

Proj rush yards

230

Proj rush TDs

3.2

Proj pass yards

3042

Proj pass TDs

18.7

Proj INTs

13.7

Touchdown regression

He actually scored 8 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of 13.9. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.

What this projection was built from

8 g in 2025, 26.5 att/g, 92% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), QB1 on depth chart, age 25, +13.9 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity

fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.

What this page is standing on

Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.

  • Identity join: Resolved to gsis 00-0040668 via the 2025 nflverse season file. The weekly log and advanced splits are keyed on that id.
  • Market ADP: A bundled snapshot of platform ADP, not a live feed. Shown for comparison and never read by the projection model.
  • Headshot: Resolved from exact-name.
  • Vitals: Height, weight, college and jersey are read from nflverse and keyed on gsis id 00-0040668 — not on name. Name keying matches players to relatives who share one: "Marvin Harrison Jr." also matches his father's 1996 row, and whichever came first in the file would win.
  • Not shown: draft round and pick. The bundled player file carries them on roughly 48% of rows and populates them late, so a blank is equally consistent with a genuine undrafted free agent and with a first-rounder nobody has ingested yet. The model’s own three-state read is used instead, above.

Model run caveats

  • No usable red-zone RECEIVING fit for QB — receiving touchdowns at that position come from the shrunk per-target rate alone.
  • Rookie draft capital on this run: 82 drafted (projected from round/pick), 145 confirmed undrafted, 172 with capital UNKNOWN.
  • 172 of 399 rookie projections (43%) have NO KNOWN DRAFT CAPITAL because this draft class has not been ingested by any source the model can read. For those players the draft-capital path did not run: a first-round pick and a camp arm receive the same number, separated only by depth-chart order. Those projections are flagged `isPositionalFloor` and must be read as a floor for the role, not as a valuation of the player.

How the model works

Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.

Where it loses

Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.

Model Rankings

Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.