TE · LAC · Bye 7
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
Projection
7.0
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
136.7
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
140.0
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
-3.3
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Market is aggressive
Risk / reliability
Low Risk
Reliability
80 / 99
Coverage
80%
Live board
catches 4.5 points more often than his 9-yard target depth predicts, and +1.45 yards after catch versus expectation. That is earned production rather than volume, and it tends to persist.
Model rank
120.27
Market
136.7
Confidence
medium
2026 week 1
The BALLDONTLIE weekly outlook is unavailable for this player right now. The rest of the profile remains live.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
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Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
Oronde Gadsden II · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
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Measured game log
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Oronde Gadsden II yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Position-relative
Target Command & Offensive Role
79
Strong
Top 9% at TE
Replacement + Draft Economics
91
Elite
Top 8% at TE
TD / High-Value Opportunity
61
Average
Top 35% at TE
Receiving Talent
80
Strong
Top 8% at TE
Offensive Ecosystem
49
Watch
Top 50% at TE
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
59
Average
Top 31% at TE
Games
15
Half-PPR
82.4
Total TD
3
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Value Over Replacement
-3.2
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
-1
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
B
Fair Value
Market
136.7
FFT value
140.0
Board Δ
-3.3
Week 15
vs SF
Rank 9th
GreatWeek 16
@ MIA
Rank 4th
EliteWeek 17
vs KC
Rank 25th
ToughEvery dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Deep research dossier
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
catches 4.5 points more often than his 9-yard target depth predicts, and +1.45 yards after catch versus expectation. That is earned production rather than volume, and it tends to persist.
Model rank
101
Market ADP
136.7
Divergence
35.8
Edge score
0.68
Every measured input behind this call
catches 4.5 points more often than his 9-yard target depth predicts, and +1.45 yards after catch versus expectation. That is earned production rather than volume, and it tends to persist.
source: NFL Next Gen Stats (depth-adjusted)
His route-concept mix is worth 0.27 EPA per target against a 0.05 league baseline. His most common concept is quick out at 22% of targets. He is used in higher-value ways than his target count alone suggests.
source: FFT route concepts derived from nflverse play-by-play
Registered 2026-08-08T06:38:11.545Z against a board computed 2026-08-08T06:33:00.114Z, under fft-projection-1.0.0-beta / fft-edges-1.0.0. Scored pool 615, of which 160 carried a market price and formed the comparable pool this call is relative to. Market source: Consensus of the Yahoo, Sleeper and RTSports ADP columns in the static dataset snapshot bundled with the app at registration time — a snapshot, not a live feed. The ADP recorded on each call is the price the market was charging when the call was made.. Selection: EVERY directional verdict the board produced at boardComputedAt — all 15 BUY and 14 FADE from a scored pool of 615 players, 160 of whom carried a market price. No filtering by conviction, position or confidence, so the record cannot be flattered by selection. Witness: git commit only — see docs/methodology.md
Grading happens after the season against the pool frozen at registration. See the full record, including the misses →
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
Games
15
PPR pts
131.4
Half-PPR pts
82.4
PPR / game
8.8
Receiving
Targets
69
Receptions
49
Rec yards
664
Rec TDs
3
Target share
12.7%
Air yards share
13.7%
WOPR
0.29
Rushing
Carries
0
Rush yards
0
Rush TDs
0
Yards / carry
—
Passing
Pass yards
0
Pass TDs
0
Interceptions
0
nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0040189). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
136.7
Median
133.0
Sources ranking him
3/3
Agreement
Low
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | 133.0 |
| Sleeper ADP | 104.0 |
| RTSports ADP | 173.0 |
The sources that ranked him disagree by 69.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 28.3).
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Weeks with a line
15
PPR / game
8.8
Std dev
7.3
Coeff. of variation
0.83
Boom rate
13% (2/15)
Bust rate
47% (7/15)
Best week
29.4 wk 7
Worst week
1.7 wk 14
Recent form — last 4 games with a line
7.1 PPR per game over weeks 15, 16, 17, 18 — -1.7 against his season average.
| Wk | Opp | PPR | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Car | RuYd | TD | RZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | DEN | 9.6 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | NYG | 3.6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | WAS | 2.4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | MIA | 11.8 | 8 | 7 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | IND | 29.4 | 9 | 7 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 8 | MIN | 18.7 | 5 | 5 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | TEN | 11.8 | 5 | 5 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | PIT | 4.3 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | JAX | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | LV | 3.7 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | PHI | 1.7 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | KC | 10.1 | 5 | 4 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | DAL | 1.7 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | HOU | 12.2 | 6 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 18 | DEN | 4.3 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0040189. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.
This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (TE: boom ≥ 15, bust ≤ 5) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
RZ targets
15
RZ carries
—
RZ TDs
3
aDOT
9.0
Concept EPA / target
0.270
Classified targets
72
Catch residual
4.476
YAC over expected
1.45
Most-run concept: QUICK_OUT on 22.2% of his classified targets.
Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
Projected games
14.4
Half-PPR (season)
101.0
PPR (season)
124.5
Confidence
high
Proj targets
65.5
Proj receptions
47.0
Proj rec yards
538
Proj rec TDs
3.9
Proj carries
0.9
Proj rush yards
2
Proj rush TDs
0.1
Proj pass yards
0
Proj pass TDs
0.0
Proj INTs
0.0
Touchdown regression
He actually scored 3 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of 0.9. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.
What this projection was built from
15 g in 2025, 4.6 tgt/g, 63% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), TE1 on depth chart, age 23
fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
Model run caveats
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.
