Live board
Today's Read
Measured, and nothing about him departs from what the market is already pricing.
Model rank
Market
—
Confidence
low
RB · NE · Bye 11
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
Projection
10.2
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
49.7
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
48.5
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
+1.2
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Fairly priced
Risk / reliability
Low Risk
Reliability
89 / 99
Coverage
80%
Live board
Measured, and nothing about him departs from what the market is already pricing.
Model rank
Market
—
Confidence
low
2026 week 2
Our projection
8.8
Weighted weekly consensus
BDL projection
8.4
BALLDONTLIE weekly
Sleeper projection
8.4
Sleeper weekly
Game status
Not reported
No injury description reported
Latest practice
full
Game-day active
Active
Started
No
Participation
Played
Game market
Total — · Spread —
Implied team total — · cross-book median
Live draft market
ADP 105.2 · Rostered 90.0%
BDL change +0.0%
BALLDONTLIE data checked 9/20/2026, 6:44:22 PM ET. Sportsbook values are consensus context, not betting advice.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
Loading 2026 results…
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
TreVeyon Henderson · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
Loading game data…
Measured game log
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for TreVeyon Henderson yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Position-relative
Opportunity / Workload
81
Strong
Top 9% at RB
Talent / Efficiency
72
Strong
Top 9% at RB
Offensive Environment
75
Strong
Top 23% at RB
OL / Run Environment
74
Strong
Top 19% at RB
QB / Game-Script Fit
64
Average
Top 35% at RB
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
38
Watch
Top 85% at RB
Games
17
Half-PPR
171.2
Total TD
10
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Value Over Replacement
+13.6
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
+0
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
B
Fair Value
Market
49.7
FFT value
48.5
Board Δ
+1.2
Week 15
@ KC
Rank 27th
ToughWeek 16
@ NYJ
Rank 2nd
EliteWeek 17
vs DEN
Rank 32nd
ToughEvery dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Deep research dossier
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
No pre-registered call was made on TreVeyon Henderson. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
Games
17
PPR pts
206.2
Half-PPR pts
171.2
PPR / game
12.1
Receiving
Targets
42
Receptions
35
Rec yards
221
Rec TDs
1
Target share
8.7%
Air yards share
-0.0%
WOPR
0.13
Rushing
Carries
180
Rush yards
911
Rush TDs
9
Yards / carry
5.06
Passing
Pass yards
0
Pass TDs
0
Interceptions
0
nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0040734). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
49.7
Median
49.0
Sources ranking him
3/4
Agreement
Medium
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | 57.0 |
| Sleeper ADP | 43.0 |
| RTSports ADP | 49.0 |
| Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (live) | unranked |
The sources that ranked him disagree by 14.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 5.7).
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Weeks with a line
17
PPR / game
12.1
Std dev
9.3
Coeff. of variation
0.77
Boom rate
18% (3/17)
Bust rate
41% (7/17)
Best week
32.3 wk 11
Worst week
0.5 wk 7
Recent form — last 4 games with a line
14.4 PPR per game over weeks 15, 16, 17, 18 — +2.3 against his season average.
| Wk | Opp | PPR | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Car | RuYd | TD | RZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LV | 11.1 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 5 | 27 | 0 | 1 |
| 2 | MIA | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | PIT | 7.7 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | CAR | 12.6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | BUF | 4.7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | NO | 4.6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | TEN | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | CLE | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 75 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | ATL | 12.7 | 6 | 4 | 32 | 14 | 55 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | TB | 28.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 147 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | NYJ | 32.3 | 5 | 5 | 31 | 19 | 62 | 3 | 8 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.1 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 66 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 67 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | BUF | 30.1 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 148 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | BAL | 2.2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
| 17 | NYJ | 8.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 82 | 0 | 5 |
| 18 | MIA | 17.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 53 | 2 | 4 |
The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0040734. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.
This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (RB: boom ≥ 20, bust ≤ 8) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
RZ targets
4
RZ carries
37
RZ TDs
6
aDOT
—
Concept EPA / target
-0.017
Classified targets
48
Catch residual
—
YAC over expected
—
Most-run concept: SCREEN on 52.1% of his classified targets.
Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
Projected games
14.9
Half-PPR (season)
151.6
PPR (season)
166.3
Confidence
high
Proj targets
37.2
Proj receptions
29.3
Proj rec yards
210
Proj rec TDs
1.4
Proj carries
160.5
Proj rush yards
715
Proj rush TDs
6.3
Proj pass yards
0
Proj pass TDs
0.0
Proj INTs
0.0
Touchdown regression
He actually scored 10 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of -2.4. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.
What this projection was built from
17 g in 2025, 10.6 car/g, 2.5 tgt/g, 46% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), RB2 on depth chart, age 24, -2.4 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity
fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
Model run caveats
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.