Live board
Today's Read
Scored 7 TDs on 26 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies only about 4.08. Touchdown rates that far above expectation rarely repeat, and the market is paying for them.
Model rank
141.43
Market
56.0
Confidence
low
RB · JAC · Bye 7
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
Projection
4.9
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
56.0
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
84.7
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
-28.7
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Market is aggressive
Risk / reliability
Medium Risk
Reliability
69 / 99
Coverage
80%
Live board
Scored 7 TDs on 26 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies only about 4.08. Touchdown rates that far above expectation rarely repeat, and the market is paying for them.
Model rank
141.43
Market
56.0
Confidence
low
2026 week 1
The BALLDONTLIE weekly outlook is unavailable for this player right now. The rest of the profile remains live.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
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Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
Bhayshul Tuten · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
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Measured game log
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Bhayshul Tuten yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Position-relative
Opportunity / Workload
62
Average
Top 28% at RB
Talent / Efficiency
55
Average
Top 38% at RB
Offensive Environment
55
Average
Top 52% at RB
OL / Run Environment
69
Average
Top 32% at RB
QB / Game-Script Fit
33
Watch
Top 94% at RB
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
72
Strong
Top 4% at RB
Games
15
Half-PPR
78.6
Total TD
7
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Value Over Replacement
-68.8
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
-32
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
D
Reach
Market
56.0
FFT value
84.7
Board Δ
-28.7
Week 15
@ HOU
Rank 22nd
NeutralWeek 16
@ DAL
Rank 6th
EliteWeek 17
vs WAS
Rank 5th
EliteEvery dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Deep research dossier
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
No pre-registered call was made on Bhayshul Tuten. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
Games
15
PPR pts
88.6
Half-PPR pts
78.6
PPR / game
5.9
Receiving
Targets
14
Receptions
10
Rec yards
79
Rec TDs
2
Target share
2.6%
Air yards share
0.2%
WOPR
0.04
Rushing
Carries
83
Rush yards
307
Rush TDs
5
Yards / carry
3.70
Passing
Pass yards
0
Pass TDs
0
Interceptions
0
nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0040719). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
56.0
Median
56.0
Sources ranking him
3/3
Agreement
High
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | 61.0 |
| Sleeper ADP | 56.0 |
| RTSports ADP | 51.0 |
The sources that ranked him disagree by 10.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 4.1).
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Weeks with a line
15
PPR / game
5.9
Std dev
4.8
Coeff. of variation
0.80
Boom rate
0% (0/15)
Bust rate
53% (8/15)
Best week
15.4 wk 2
Worst week
-1.5 wk 14
Recent form — last 4 games with a line
6.3 PPR per game over weeks 13, 14, 15, 18 — +0.3 against his season average.
| Wk | Opp | PPR | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Car | RuYd | TD | RZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 2 |
| 2 | CIN | 15.4 | 2 | 2 | 32 | 8 | 42 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | HOU | 8.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 1 | 1 |
| 4 | SF | 3.2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | KC | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | SEA | 4.8 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | LA | 2.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | LV | 9.6 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 9 | 29 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | HOU | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| 11 | LAC | 13.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 74 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | ARI | 1.7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | TEN | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | IND | -1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | NYJ | 9.3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | TEN | 8.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 23 | 1 | 2 |
The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0040719. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.
This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (RB: boom ≥ 20, bust ≤ 8) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
RZ targets
2
RZ carries
27
RZ TDs
7
aDOT
—
Concept EPA / target
—
Classified targets
—
Catch residual
—
YAC over expected
—
Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
Projected games
13.7
Half-PPR (season)
66.7
PPR (season)
72.1
Confidence
medium
Proj targets
13.9
Proj receptions
10.8
Proj rec yards
81
Proj rec TDs
0.6
Proj carries
72.8
Proj rush yards
315
Proj rush TDs
3.1
Proj pass yards
0
Proj pass TDs
0.0
Proj INTs
0.0
Touchdown regression
He actually scored 7 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of -3.3. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.
What this projection was built from
15 g in 2025, 5.5 car/g, 0.9 tgt/g, 21% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), RB1 on depth chart, age 25, -3.3 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity
fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
Model run caveats
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.