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Today's Read
Wil Lutz is not currently in the scored edge pool.
Full analysis
Position: KickerP Tier
Wil Lutz
K · DEN · Bye 10
FFT9957
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
RAW 43 · 57% cov
Projection
—
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
234.0
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
234.7
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
-0.7
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Fairly priced
Risk / reliability
Low Risk
85
Reliability
85 / 99
Coverage
25%
2026 week 2
Weekly Outlook
Our projection
—
Weighted weekly consensus
BDL projection
8.5
BALLDONTLIE weekly
Sleeper projection
6.4
Sleeper weekly
Game status
Not reported
No injury description reported
Latest practice
Not reported
Game-day active
Active
Started
Pending
Participation
Pending
Game market
Total — · Spread —
Implied team total — · cross-book median
Live draft market
ADP 169.4 · Rostered 5.7%
BDL change -0.0%
BALLDONTLIE data checked 9/20/2026, 5:46:09 PM ET. Sportsbook values are consensus context, not betting advice.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
Season Production
Loading 2026 results…
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
Every play has a story.
Wil Lutz · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
Loading game data…
Measured game log
Weekly Performance
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Wil Lutz yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Latest news for Wil Lutz
Position-relative
FFT99 Pillar Scores
Expected Kicking Opportunity
46
Watch
46
Top 61% at K
Kicker Skill & Range
45
Watch
45
Top 60% at K
Replacement + Draft Economics
36
Watch
36
Top 62% at K
Coaching / Decision Environment
—
No grade
—
0% coverage
Stadium + Weather Environment
13
Watch
13
Top 35% at K
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
29
Watch
29
Top 86% at K
Player Profile
Expected Kicking Opportunity46
Kicker Skill & Range45
Replacement + Draft Economics36
Coaching / Decision Environment—
Stadium + Weather Environment13
Fantasy Playoff Schedule29
Games
—
Half-PPR
—
Total TD
—
Model Component Contributions
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Value Over Replacement
21%
FG% Above Expectation
12%
FG Attempts/Game
10%
Draft Cost
10%
50-59 Yard Ability
8%
XP Opportunities/Game
7%
Dome Games
7%
40-49 Yard Ability
6%
Draft Economics
Value Over Replacement
—
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
—
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
—
insufficient data
reachfair valuesteal
Market
234.0
FFT value
234.7
Board Δ
-0.7
Playoff Schedule
Week 15
@ LV
Rank 17th
NeutralWeek 16
vs BUF
Rank 29th
ToughWeek 17
@ NE
Rank 22nd
NeutralFFT99 vs ADP
Every dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Compare Players
Deep research dossier
Evidence, history and model transparency
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
The call record
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
The call record
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
No pre-registered call was made on Wil Lutz. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.
2025 production
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
2025 production
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
What the market says
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
What the market says
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
234.0
Median
233.0
Sources ranking him
3/4
Agreement
Low
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | 202.0 |
| Sleeper ADP | 233.0 |
| RTSports ADP | 267.0 |
| Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (live) | unranked |
The sources that ranked him disagree by 65.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 26.6).
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Week-to-week, 2025
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Week-to-week, 2025
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
Advanced usage & efficiency
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
Advanced usage & efficiency
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
How the model gets there
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
How the model gets there
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
The model produced no projection for this player. It projects from measured production and opportunity, so a player with no prior stat line who is also not flagged as a rookie in any ingested source cannot be projected. He is reported unprojected rather than given a placeholder.
What this page is standing on
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
What this page is standing on
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
- Identity join: No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
- Market ADP: A bundled snapshot of platform ADP, not a live feed. Shown for comparison and never read by the projection model.
- Headshot: Resolved from exact-name.
- Vitals: No nflverse player row resolved for this gsis id, so no vitals are shown. Nothing is guessed from the name.
- Not shown: draft round and pick. The bundled player file carries them on roughly 48% of rows and populates them late, so a blank is equally consistent with a genuine undrafted free agent and with a first-rounder nobody has ingested yet. The model’s own three-state read is used instead, above.
Model run caveats
- No usable red-zone RECEIVING fit for QB — receiving touchdowns at that position come from the shrunk per-target rate alone.
- Rookie draft capital on this run: 82 drafted (projected from round/pick), 141 confirmed undrafted, 177 with capital UNKNOWN.
- 177 of 400 rookie projections (44%) have NO KNOWN DRAFT CAPITAL because this draft class has not been ingested by any source the model can read. For those players the draft-capital path did not run: a first-round pick and a camp arm receive the same number, separated only by depth-chart order. Those projections are flagged `isPositionalFloor` and must be read as a floor for the role, not as a valuation of the player.
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.