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Ollie Gordon II headshot
Position: Running backFFT99

Ollie Gordon II

RB · MIA · Bye 6

Age 226'2"225 lbs1 yr
FFT9948

Elite Profile

Calibrated public rating

RAW 48 · 93% cov

Projection

3.8

Half-PPR / game

Market ADP

277.0

Consensus overall

FFT fair value

Calibrated pick

Draft delta

Market minus FFT

Draft recommendation

Fairly priced

Risk / reliability

Low Risk

84
Risk: Low

Reliability

84 / 99

Coverage

80%

Live board

Today's Read

NO MARKET DATA

Measured, and nothing about him departs from what the market is already pricing.

Model rank

Market

Confidence

low

Full analysis

2026 week 2

Weekly Outlook

FFT · BDL · SLEEPER · MARKETS

Our projection

2.5

Weighted weekly consensus

BDL projection

1.8

BALLDONTLIE weekly

Sleeper projection

2.3

Sleeper weekly

Game status

Not reported

No injury description reported

Latest practice

Not reported

Game-day active

Active

Started

Pending

Participation

Pending

Game market

Total · Spread

Implied team total · cross-book median

Live draft market

ADP 170.0 · Rostered 1.2%

BDL change +0.0%

BALLDONTLIE data checked 9/20/2026, 5:47:20 PM ET. Sportsbook values are consensus context, not betting advice.

Measured 2026 · Regular season

Season Production

Loading 2026 results…

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.

2026 / Player Game Center

Every play has a story.

Ollie Gordon II · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.

Loading game data…

Measured game log

Weekly Performance

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.

No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Ollie Gordon II yet.

This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.

FFT Newsroom

Latest news for Ollie Gordon II

All reports

Position-relative

FFT99 Pillar Scores

Methodology

Opportunity / Workload

55

Average

55

Top 34% at RB

Talent / Efficiency

43

Watch

43

Top 59% at RB

Offensive Environment

40

Watch

40

Top 77% at RB

OL / Run Environment

52

Watch

52

Top 56% at RB

QB / Game-Script Fit

39

Watch

39

Top 84% at RB

Fantasy Playoff Schedule

45

Watch

45

Top 61% at RB

Player Profile

Opportunity / Workload55
Talent / Efficiency43
Offensive Environment40
OL / Run Environment52
QB / Game-Script Fit39
Fantasy Playoff Schedule45

Games

17

Half-PPR

47.1

Total TD

4

Model Component Contributions

The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.

Rush Share
9%
Targets Per Game
9%
Vegas
7%
Snap
6%
Inside Ten
6%
Run Tendency
6%
Route
5%
Rz Carries
5%

Draft Economics

Value Over Replacement

-81.1

proj. half-PPR pts

Rank Delta

+9

position spots vs ADP

Value Grade

A

Great Value

reachfair valuesteal

Market

277.0

FFT value

Board Δ

Playoff Schedule

Week 15

@ GB

Rank 17th

Neutral

Week 16

vs LAC

Rank 29th

Tough

Week 17

vs BUF

Rank 9th

Great

FFT99 vs ADP

Every dot is a real position peer with a market price.

Ollie Gordon IICONSENSUS ADP →FFT99 →

Deep research dossier

Evidence, history and model transparency

The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.

The call record

Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.

No pre-registered call was made on Ollie Gordon II. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.

2025 production

What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.

Games

17

PPR pts

54.1

Half-PPR pts

47.1

PPR / game

3.2

Receiving

Targets

9

Receptions

7

Rec yards

32

Rec TDs

1

Target share

1.9%

Air yards share

-0.7%

WOPR

0.02

Rushing

Carries

70

Rush yards

199

Rush TDs

3

Yards / carry

2.84

Passing

Pass yards

0

Pass TDs

0

Interceptions

0

nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0040198). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.

What the market says

Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.

Consensus ADP

302.0

Median

302.0

Sources ranking him

1/4

Agreement

SourceRank / ADP
Yahoo ADPunranked
Sleeper ADPunranked
RTSports ADP302.0
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (live)unranked

Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.

Week-to-week, 2025

Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.

Weeks with a line

16

PPR / game

3.4

Std dev

4.3

Coeff. of variation

1.26

Boom rate

0% (0/16)

Bust rate

81% (13/16)

Best week

13.6 wk 8

Worst week

-0.3 wk 10

Recent form — last 4 games with a line

2.4 PPR per game over weeks 14, 15, 16, 18-1.0 against his season average.

Every week (16 lines)
WkOppPPRTgtRecYdsCarRuYdTDRZ
1IND1.311-12401
2NE2.31151800
3BUF9.800093813
4NYJ1.010061003
5CAR-0.20003-200
6LAC1.21112100
7CLE2.321251101
8ATL13.61120104613
9BAL1.91132601
10BUF-0.30001-300
11WAS10.500094516
13NO1.000031000
14NYJ7.700051711
15PIT0.00002000
16CIN-0.10001-100
18NE2.11129902

The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0040198. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.

This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (RB: boom ≥ 20, bust ≤ 8) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.

Advanced usage & efficiency

Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.

Red-zone opportunity

Scoring upside

RZ targets

2

RZ carries

19

RZ TDs

4

aDOT

Concept EPA / target

Classified targets

Catch residual

YAC over expected

Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.

How the model gets there

The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.

Projected games

14.9

Half-PPR (season)

56.9

PPR (season)

62.1

Confidence

medium

Proj targets

13.1

Proj receptions

10.3

Proj rec yards

74

Proj rec TDs

0.5

Proj carries

62.1

Proj rush yards

266

Proj rush TDs

2.5

Proj pass yards

0

Proj pass TDs

0.0

Proj INTs

0.0

Touchdown regression

He actually scored 4 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of -0.9. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.

What this projection was built from

17 g in 2025, 4.1 car/g, 0.5 tgt/g, 22% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), RB3 on depth chart, age 23

fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.

What this page is standing on

Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.

  • Identity join: Resolved to gsis 00-0040198 via the 2025 nflverse season file. The weekly log and advanced splits are keyed on that id.
  • Market ADP: A bundled snapshot of platform ADP, not a live feed. Shown for comparison and never read by the projection model.
  • Headshot: Resolved from canonical-name.
  • Vitals: Height, weight, college and jersey are read from nflverse and keyed on gsis id 00-0040198 — not on name. Name keying matches players to relatives who share one: "Marvin Harrison Jr." also matches his father's 1996 row, and whichever came first in the file would win.
  • Not shown: draft round and pick. The bundled player file carries them on roughly 48% of rows and populates them late, so a blank is equally consistent with a genuine undrafted free agent and with a first-rounder nobody has ingested yet. The model’s own three-state read is used instead, above.

Model run caveats

  • No usable red-zone RECEIVING fit for QB — receiving touchdowns at that position come from the shrunk per-target rate alone.
  • Rookie draft capital on this run: 82 drafted (projected from round/pick), 141 confirmed undrafted, 177 with capital UNKNOWN.
  • 177 of 400 rookie projections (44%) have NO KNOWN DRAFT CAPITAL because this draft class has not been ingested by any source the model can read. For those players the draft-capital path did not run: a first-round pick and a camp arm receive the same number, separated only by depth-chart order. Those projections are flagged `isPositionalFloor` and must be read as a floor for the role, not as a valuation of the player.

How the model works

Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.

Where it loses

Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.

Model Rankings

Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.