WR · GB · Bye 11
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
Projection
5.5
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
151.7
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
161.2
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
-9.6
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Market is aggressive
Risk / reliability
Medium Risk
Reliability
72 / 99
Coverage
80%
Live board
His route-concept mix is worth 0.5 EPA per target against a 0.05 league baseline. His most common concept is screen at 20% of targets. He is used in higher-value ways than his target count alone suggests.
Model rank
128.91
Market
151.7
Confidence
medium
2026 week 1
The BALLDONTLIE weekly outlook is unavailable for this player right now. The rest of the profile remains live.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
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Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
Matthew Golden · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
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Measured game log
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Matthew Golden yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Position-relative
Opportunity
74
Strong
Top 15% at WR
Talent
55
Average
Top 43% at WR
Offensive Environment
51
Watch
Top 55% at WR
QB Play
73
Strong
Top 12% at WR
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
42
Watch
Top 58% at WR
Games
14
Half-PPR
41
Total TD
0
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Value Over Replacement
-42.3
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
-20
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
D
Reach
Market
151.7
FFT value
161.2
Board Δ
-9.6
Week 15
vs MIA
Rank 19th
NeutralWeek 16
@ CHI
Rank 6th
EliteWeek 17
vs HOU
Rank 30th
ToughEvery dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Deep research dossier
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
His route-concept mix is worth 0.5 EPA per target against a 0.05 league baseline. His most common concept is screen at 20% of targets. He is used in higher-value ways than his target count alone suggests.
Model rank
143
Market ADP
151.7
Divergence
8.5
Edge score
0.62
Every measured input behind this call
His route-concept mix is worth 0.5 EPA per target against a 0.05 league baseline. His most common concept is screen at 20% of targets. He is used in higher-value ways than his target count alone suggests.
source: FFT route concepts derived from nflverse play-by-play
Scored 0 TDs on 4 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies about 2.35. Finishing that far below expectation tends to regress upward, and the market is still pricing the 0.
source: Sportradar red-zone opportunity + FFT finishing-rate model
Registered 2026-08-08T06:38:11.545Z against a board computed 2026-08-08T06:33:00.114Z, under fft-projection-1.0.0-beta / fft-edges-1.0.0. Scored pool 615, of which 160 carried a market price and formed the comparable pool this call is relative to. Market source: Consensus of the Yahoo, Sleeper and RTSports ADP columns in the static dataset snapshot bundled with the app at registration time — a snapshot, not a live feed. The ADP recorded on each call is the price the market was charging when the call was made.. Selection: EVERY directional verdict the board produced at boardComputedAt — all 15 BUY and 14 FADE from a scored pool of 615 players, 160 of whom carried a market price. No filtering by conviction, position or confidence, so the record cannot be flattered by selection. Witness: git commit only — see docs/methodology.md
Grading happens after the season against the pool frozen at registration. See the full record, including the misses →
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
Games
14
PPR pts
70.0
Half-PPR pts
41.0
PPR / game
5.0
Receiving
Targets
44
Receptions
29
Rec yards
361
Rec TDs
0
Target share
9.6%
Air yards share
12.9%
WOPR
0.23
Rushing
Carries
10
Rush yards
49
Rush TDs
0
Yards / carry
4.90
Passing
Pass yards
0
Pass TDs
0
Interceptions
0
nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0040667). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
151.7
Median
138.0
Sources ranking him
3/3
Agreement
Low
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | 182.0 |
| Sleeper ADP | 138.0 |
| RTSports ADP | 135.0 |
The sources that ranked him disagree by 47.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 21.5).
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Weeks with a line
14
PPR / game
5.0
Std dev
4.1
Coeff. of variation
0.83
Boom rate
0% (0/14)
Bust rate
71% (10/14)
Best week
13.2 wk 6
Worst week
0.0 wk 14
Recent form — last 4 games with a line
3.2 PPR per game over weeks 15, 16, 17, 18 — -1.8 against his season average.
| Wk | Opp | PPR | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Car | RuYd | TD | RZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DET | 3.6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | WAS | 1.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | CLE | 10.1 | 4 | 4 | 52 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | DAL | 11.3 | 6 | 5 | 58 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| 6 | CIN | 13.2 | 5 | 3 | 86 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | ARI | 7.7 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | PIT | 3.4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | CAR | 2.9 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | NYG | 3.4 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | CHI | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | DEN | 8.5 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | CHI | 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | BAL | 2.2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | MIN | 1.8 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0040667. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.
This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (WR: boom ≥ 20, bust ≤ 8) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
RZ targets
2
RZ carries
2
RZ TDs
0
aDOT
—
Concept EPA / target
0.501
Classified targets
49
Catch residual
—
YAC over expected
—
Most-run concept: SCREEN on 20.4% of his classified targets.
Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
Projected games
14.3
Half-PPR (season)
78.4
PPR (season)
95.5
Confidence
medium
Proj targets
53.8
Proj receptions
34.2
Proj rec yards
427
Proj rec TDs
2.5
Proj carries
5.1
Proj rush yards
27
Proj rush TDs
0.2
Proj pass yards
0
Proj pass TDs
0.0
Proj INTs
0.0
Touchdown regression
He actually scored 0 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of 2.7. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.
What this projection was built from
14 g in 2025, 3.1 tgt/g, 53% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), RWR2 on depth chart, age 23, +2.7 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity
fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
Model run caveats
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.
