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James Cook III headshot
Position: Running backB Tier

James Cook III

RB · BUF · Bye 7

5'11"190 lbs
FFT9992

Elite Profile

Calibrated public rating

RAW 74 · not graded

Projection

13.7

Half-PPR / game

Market ADP

9.7

Consensus overall

FFT fair value

13.1

Calibrated pick

Draft delta

-3.4

Market minus FFT

Draft recommendation

Market is aggressive

Risk / reliability

Not graded

Reliability

/ 99

Coverage

Live board

Today's Read

NO MARKET DATA

Scored 14 TDs on 56 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies only about 11.75. Touchdown rates that far above expectation rarely repeat, and the market is paying for them.

Model rank

Market

Confidence

low

Full analysis

2026 week 2

Weekly Outlook

FFT · BDL · SLEEPER · MARKETS

Our projection

16.5

Weighted weekly consensus

BDL projection

17.0

BALLDONTLIE weekly

Sleeper projection

18.1

Sleeper weekly

Game status

Not reported

No injury description reported

Latest practice

Not reported

Game-day active

Active

Started

Yes

Participation

Played

Game market

Total · Spread

Implied team total · cross-book median

Live draft market

ADP 13.0 · Rostered 99.9%

BDL change -0.2%

BALLDONTLIE data checked 9/20/2026, 5:46:19 PM ET. Sportsbook values are consensus context, not betting advice.

Measured 2026 · Regular season

Season Production

Loading 2026 results…

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.

2026 / Player Game Center

Every play has a story.

James Cook III · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.

Loading game data…

Measured game log

Weekly Performance

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.

No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for James Cook III yet.

This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.

FFT Newsroom

Latest news for James Cook III

All reports

Position-relative

FFT99 Pillar Scores

Methodology

No FFT99 pillar profile available.

Player Profile

No FFT99 profile available.

Games

17

Half-PPR

269.2

Total TD

14

Model Component Contributions

The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.

No component profile.

Draft Economics

Draft value is unavailable.

Market

9.7

FFT value

13.1

Board Δ

-3.4

Playoff Schedule

Schedule grades unavailable.

FFT99 vs ADP

Every dot is a real position peer with a market price.

Deep research dossier

Evidence, history and model transparency

The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.

The call record

Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.

No pre-registered call was made on James Cook III. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.

2025 production

What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.

Games

17

PPR pts

302.2

Half-PPR pts

269.2

PPR / game

17.8

Receiving

Targets

40

Receptions

33

Rec yards

291

Rec TDs

2

Target share

8.4%

Air yards share

1.5%

WOPR

0.14

Rushing

Carries

309

Rush yards

1621

Rush TDs

12

Yards / carry

5.25

Passing

Pass yards

0

Pass TDs

0

Interceptions

0

nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0037248). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.

What the market says

Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.

Consensus ADP

9.7

Median

10.0

Sources ranking him

3/4

Agreement

High

SourceRank / ADP
Yahoo ADP10.0
Sleeper ADP9.0
RTSports ADP10.0
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (live)unranked

The sources that ranked him disagree by 1.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 0.5).

Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.

Week-to-week, 2025

Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.

Weeks with a line

17

PPR / game

17.8

Std dev

8.9

Coeff. of variation

0.50

Boom rate

53% (9/17)

Bust rate

12% (2/17)

Best week

33.6 wk 8

Worst week

1.5 wk 18

Recent form — last 4 games with a line

16.9 PPR per game over weeks 15, 16, 17, 18-0.8 against his season average.

Every week (17 lines)
WkOppPPRTgtRecYdsCarRuYdTDRZ
1BAL21.25558134414
2NYJ26.51132113227
3MIA20.833101910813
4NO22.543182211715
5NE4.9100154903
6ATL8.7000178701
8CAR33.60001921622
9KC13.511112711403
10MIA10.75524135302
11TB20.43366164812
12HOU21.933131711610
13PIT18.733333214407
14CIN11.12231188007
15NE31.13242210737
16CLE26.421171611724
17PHI8.7413207402
18NYJ1.500021500

The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0037248. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.

This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (RB: boom ≥ 20, bust ≤ 8) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.

Advanced usage & efficiency

Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.

Red-zone opportunity

Scoring upside

RZ targets

3

RZ carries

63

RZ TDs

8

aDOT

Concept EPA / target

0.167

Classified targets

46

Catch residual

YAC over expected

Most-run concept: FLAT on 39.1% of his classified targets.

Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.

How the model gets there

The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.

Projected games

14.5

Half-PPR (season)

199.0

PPR (season)

213.8

Confidence

high

Proj targets

37.5

Proj receptions

29.5

Proj rec yards

240

Proj rec TDs

1.5

Proj carries

223.3

Proj rush yards

1020

Proj rush TDs

8.5

Proj pass yards

0

Proj pass TDs

0.0

Proj INTs

0.0

Touchdown regression

He actually scored 14 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of -4.0. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.

What this projection was built from

17 g in 2025, 18.2 car/g, 2.4 tgt/g, 57% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), RB1 on depth chart, age 27, -4 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity

fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.

What this page is standing on

Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.

  • Identity join: Resolved to gsis 00-0037248 via the 2025 nflverse season file. The weekly log and advanced splits are keyed on that id.
  • Market ADP: A bundled snapshot of platform ADP, not a live feed. Shown for comparison and never read by the projection model.
  • Headshot: Resolved from canonical-name.
  • Vitals: Height, weight, college and jersey are read from nflverse and keyed on gsis id 00-0037248 — not on name. Name keying matches players to relatives who share one: "Marvin Harrison Jr." also matches his father's 1996 row, and whichever came first in the file would win.
  • Not shown: draft round and pick. The bundled player file carries them on roughly 48% of rows and populates them late, so a blank is equally consistent with a genuine undrafted free agent and with a first-rounder nobody has ingested yet. The model’s own three-state read is used instead, above.

Model run caveats

  • No usable red-zone RECEIVING fit for QB — receiving touchdowns at that position come from the shrunk per-target rate alone.
  • Rookie draft capital on this run: 82 drafted (projected from round/pick), 141 confirmed undrafted, 177 with capital UNKNOWN.
  • 177 of 400 rookie projections (44%) have NO KNOWN DRAFT CAPITAL because this draft class has not been ingested by any source the model can read. For those players the draft-capital path did not run: a first-round pick and a camp arm receive the same number, separated only by depth-chart order. Those projections are flagged `isPositionalFloor` and must be read as a floor for the role, not as a valuation of the player.

How the model works

Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.

Where it loses

Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.

Model Rankings

Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.