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Today's Read
Scored 14 TDs on 31 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies only about 6.45. Touchdown rates that far above expectation rarely repeat, and the market is paying for them.
Model rank
Market
—
Confidence
high
Position: Wide receiverD Tier
Davante Adams
WR · LAR · Bye 11
Age 336'1"204 lbs12 yr
FFT9984
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
RAW 80 · 100% cov
Projection
10.3
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
56.3
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
43.5
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
+12.9
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Target ahead of market
Risk / reliability
Low Risk
77
Reliability
77 / 99
Coverage
80%
2026 week 2
Weekly Outlook
Our projection
11.5
Weighted weekly consensus
BDL projection
13.1
BALLDONTLIE weekly
Sleeper projection
10.2
Sleeper weekly
Game status
Not reported
No injury description reported
Latest practice
full
Game-day active
Not known
Started
Pending
Participation
Pending
Game market
Total 47.5 · Spread -6.5
Implied team total 27.0 · cross-book median
Live draft market
ADP 59.9 · Rostered 98.2%
BDL change -0.6%
receiving yards 62.5 (3 books)receptions 5.5 (3 books)longest reception 23.5 (1 books)
BALLDONTLIE data checked 9/20/2026, 6:44:28 PM ET. Sportsbook values are consensus context, not betting advice.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
Season Production
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Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
Every play has a story.
Davante Adams · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
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Measured game log
Weekly Performance
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Davante Adams yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Latest news for Davante Adams
Position-relative
FFT99 Pillar Scores
Opportunity
85
Elite
85
Top 7% at WR
Talent
77
Strong
77
Top 11% at WR
Offensive Environment
85
Elite
85
Top 1% at WR
QB Play
74
Strong
74
Top 10% at WR
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
51
Watch
51
Top 45% at WR
Player Profile
Opportunity85
Talent77
Offensive Environment85
QB Play74
Fantasy Playoff Schedule51
Games
14
Half-PPR
162.9
Total TD
14
Model Component Contributions
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Target Share
11%
YPRR (Efficiency)
9%
Targets Per Game
7%
First-Read Share (proxy)
7%
Vegas
7%
TPRR
7%
Play Caller
6%
Age Prod
5%
Draft Economics
Value Over Replacement
+3.1
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
-5
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
C
Slight Reach
reachfair valuesteal
Market
56.3
FFT value
43.5
Board Δ
+12.9
Playoff Schedule
Week 15
vs DAL
Rank 1st
EliteWeek 16
@ SEA
Rank 29th
ToughWeek 17
@ TB
Rank 14th
GreatFFT99 vs ADP
Every dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Compare Players
Deep research dossier
Evidence, history and model transparency
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
The call record1 pre-registered
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
The call record1 pre-registered
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
Scored 14 TDs on 31 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies only about 4.82. Touchdown rates that far above expectation rarely repeat, and the market is paying for them.
Model rank
109
Market ADP
56.3
Divergence
-52.8
Edge score
0.32
Every measured input behind this call
td_regressionbearish
Scored 14 TDs on 31 red-zone opportunities — opportunity implies only about 4.82. Touchdown rates that far above expectation rarely repeat, and the market is paying for them.
- priorTds
- 14
- expectedTds
- 4.82
- gap
- -9.18
- redzoneOpportunities
- 31
source: Sportradar red-zone opportunity + FFT finishing-rate model
usage_qualitybullish
His route-concept mix is worth 0.23 EPA per target against a 0.05 league baseline. His most common concept is quick out at 19% of targets. He is used in higher-value ways than his target count alone suggests.
- conceptEpaPerTarget
- 0.23
- leagueBaseline
- 0.05
- delta
- 0.18
- topConceptShare
- 0.19
source: FFT route concepts derived from nflverse play-by-play
efficiencybearish
catches 7 points less often than his 13.22-yard target depth predicts, and -0.55 yards after catch versus expectation. Volume is carrying his production more than skill is.
- catchResidualPts
- -7
- yacOverExpected
- -0.55
- aDOT
- 13.22
source: NFL Next Gen Stats (depth-adjusted)
opportunitybullish
8.14 targets per game across 14 games. Volume is the most stable input year over year, so this is the safest part of any projection.
- targetsPerGame
- 8.14
- priorGames
- 14
source: nflverse season stats
Registered 2026-08-08T06:38:11.545Z against a board computed 2026-08-08T06:33:00.114Z, under fft-projection-1.0.0-beta / fft-edges-1.0.0. Scored pool 615, of which 160 carried a market price and formed the comparable pool this call is relative to. Market source: Consensus of the Yahoo, Sleeper and RTSports ADP columns in the static dataset snapshot bundled with the app at registration time — a snapshot, not a live feed. The ADP recorded on each call is the price the market was charging when the call was made.. Selection: EVERY directional verdict the board produced at boardComputedAt — all 15 BUY and 14 FADE from a scored pool of 615 players, 160 of whom carried a market price. No filtering by conviction, position or confidence, so the record cannot be flattered by selection. Witness: git commit only — see docs/methodology.md
Grading happens after the season against the pool frozen at registration. See the full record, including the misses →
2025 production
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
2025 production
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
Games
14
PPR pts
222.9
Half-PPR pts
162.9
PPR / game
15.9
Receiving
Targets
114
Receptions
60
Rec yards
789
Rec TDs
14
Target share
19.6%
Air yards share
26.6%
WOPR
0.48
Rushing
Carries
0
Rush yards
0
Rush TDs
0
Yards / carry
—
Passing
Pass yards
0
Pass TDs
0
Interceptions
0
nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0031381). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.
What the market says
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
What the market says
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
56.3
Median
57.0
Sources ranking him
3/4
Agreement
Medium
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | 49.0 |
| Sleeper ADP | 57.0 |
| RTSports ADP | 63.0 |
| Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (live) | unranked |
The sources that ranked him disagree by 14.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 5.7).
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Week-to-week, 2025
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Week-to-week, 2025
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Weeks with a line
14
PPR / game
15.9
Std dev
6.6
Coeff. of variation
0.41
Boom rate
36% (5/14)
Bust rate
21% (3/14)
Best week
26.5 wk 7
Worst week
6.9 wk 14
Recent form — last 4 games with a line
15.8 PPR per game over weeks 12, 13, 14, 15 — -0.2 against his season average.
Every week (14 lines)
| Wk | Opp | PPR | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Car | RuYd | TD | RZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | 9.1 | 8 | 4 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | TEN | 22.6 | 13 | 6 | 106 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | PHI | 14.6 | 8 | 3 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | IND | 15.6 | 6 | 4 | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 5 | SF | 13.8 | 11 | 5 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | BAL | 7.9 | 9 | 4 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | JAX | 26.5 | 8 | 5 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | NO | 23.0 | 7 | 5 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | SF | 19.7 | 8 | 6 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | SEA | 7.1 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | TB | 23.2 | 8 | 5 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 13 | CAR | 21.8 | 5 | 4 | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | ARI | 6.9 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 15 | DET | 11.1 | 9 | 4 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0031381. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.
This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (WR: boom ≥ 20, bust ≤ 8) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.
Advanced usage & efficiency
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
Advanced usage & efficiency
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
Red-zone opportunity
Scoring upsideRZ targets
34
RZ carries
—
RZ TDs
13
aDOT
13.2
Concept EPA / target
0.227
Classified targets
139
Catch residual
-6.951
YAC over expected
-0.55
Most-run concept: QUICK_OUT on 18.7% of his classified targets.
Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.
How the model gets there
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
How the model gets there
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
Projected games
12.0
Half-PPR (season)
123.4
PPR (season)
148.2
Confidence
high
Proj targets
85.8
Proj receptions
49.6
Proj rec yards
651
Proj rec TDs
5.5
Proj carries
0.9
Proj rush yards
5
Proj rush TDs
0.0
Proj pass yards
0
Proj pass TDs
0.0
Proj INTs
0.0
Touchdown regression
He actually scored 14 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of -8.5. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.
What this projection was built from
14 g in 2025, 8.1 tgt/g, 71% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), LWR2 on depth chart, age 34, -8.5 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity
fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.
What this page is standing on
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
What this page is standing on
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
- Identity join: Resolved to gsis 00-0031381 via the 2025 nflverse season file. The weekly log and advanced splits are keyed on that id.
- Market ADP: A bundled snapshot of platform ADP, not a live feed. Shown for comparison and never read by the projection model.
- Headshot: Resolved from exact-name.
- Vitals: Height, weight, college and jersey are read from nflverse and keyed on gsis id 00-0031381 — not on name. Name keying matches players to relatives who share one: "Marvin Harrison Jr." also matches his father's 1996 row, and whichever came first in the file would win.
- Not shown: draft round and pick. The bundled player file carries them on roughly 48% of rows and populates them late, so a blank is equally consistent with a genuine undrafted free agent and with a first-rounder nobody has ingested yet. The model’s own three-state read is used instead, above.
Model run caveats
- No usable red-zone RECEIVING fit for QB — receiving touchdowns at that position come from the shrunk per-target rate alone.
- Rookie draft capital on this run: 82 drafted (projected from round/pick), 141 confirmed undrafted, 177 with capital UNKNOWN.
- 177 of 400 rookie projections (44%) have NO KNOWN DRAFT CAPITAL because this draft class has not been ingested by any source the model can read. For those players the draft-capital path did not run: a first-round pick and a camp arm receive the same number, separated only by depth-chart order. Those projections are flagged `isPositionalFloor` and must be read as a floor for the role, not as a valuation of the player.
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.