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D'Andre Swift headshot
Position: Running backD Tier

D'Andre Swift

RB · CHI · Bye 10

Age 275'8"204 lbs6 yr
FFT9985

Elite Profile

Calibrated public rating

RAW 72 · 96% cov

Projection

12.1

Half-PPR / game

Market ADP

54.3

Consensus overall

FFT fair value

42.4

Calibrated pick

Draft delta

+11.9

Market minus FFT

Draft recommendation

Target ahead of market

Risk / reliability

Low Risk

84
Risk: Low

Reliability

84 / 99

Coverage

80%

Live board

Today's Read

NO MARKET DATA

Measured, and nothing about him departs from what the market is already pricing.

Model rank

Market

Confidence

low

Full analysis

2026 week 2

Weekly Outlook

FFT · BDL · SLEEPER · MARKETS

Our projection

12.0

Weighted weekly consensus

BDL projection

12.6

BALLDONTLIE weekly

Sleeper projection

11.6

Sleeper weekly

Game status

Not reported

No injury description reported

Latest practice

full

Game-day active

Active

Started

Yes

Participation

Played

Game market

Total · Spread

Implied team total · cross-book median

Live draft market

ADP 58.2 · Rostered 96.4%

BDL change +0.8%

BALLDONTLIE data checked 9/20/2026, 6:34:11 PM ET. Sportsbook values are consensus context, not betting advice.

Measured 2026 · Regular season

Season Production

Loading 2026 results…

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.

2026 / Player Game Center

Every play has a story.

D'Andre Swift · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.

Loading game data…

Measured game log

Weekly Performance

Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.

No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for D'Andre Swift yet.

This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.

FFT Newsroom

Latest news for D'Andre Swift

All reports

Position-relative

FFT99 Pillar Scores

Methodology

Opportunity / Workload

86

Elite

86

Top 3% at RB

Talent / Efficiency

65

Average

65

Top 18% at RB

Offensive Environment

68

Average

68

Top 30% at RB

OL / Run Environment

74

Strong

74

Top 19% at RB

QB / Game-Script Fit

54

Watch

54

Top 51% at RB

Fantasy Playoff Schedule

43

Watch

43

Top 64% at RB

Player Profile

Opportunity / Workload86
Talent / Efficiency65
Offensive Environment68
OL / Run Environment74
QB / Game-Script Fit54
Fantasy Playoff Schedule43

Games

16

Half-PPR

194.6

Total TD

10

Model Component Contributions

The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.

Rush Share
9%
Targets Per Game
9%
Vegas
7%
Snap
6%
Inside Ten
6%
Run Tendency
6%
Route
4%
Rz Carries
4%

Draft Economics

Value Over Replacement

+31.4

proj. half-PPR pts

Rank Delta

+0

position spots vs ADP

Value Grade

B

Fair Value

reachfair valuesteal

Market

54.3

FFT value

42.4

Board Δ

+11.9

Playoff Schedule

Week 15

@ BUF

Rank 9th

Great

Week 16

vs GB

Rank 17th

Neutral

Week 17

vs DET

Rank 26th

Tough

FFT99 vs ADP

Every dot is a real position peer with a market price.

D'Andre SwiftCONSENSUS ADP →FFT99 →

Deep research dossier

Evidence, history and model transparency

The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.

The call record

Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.

No pre-registered call was made on D'Andre Swift. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.

2025 production

What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.

Games

16

PPR pts

228.6

Half-PPR pts

194.6

PPR / game

14.3

Receiving

Targets

48

Receptions

34

Rec yards

299

Rec TDs

1

Target share

9.0%

Air yards share

-0.5%

WOPR

0.13

Rushing

Carries

223

Rush yards

1087

Rush TDs

9

Yards / carry

4.87

Passing

Pass yards

0

Pass TDs

0

Interceptions

0

nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0036275). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.

What the market says

Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.

Consensus ADP

54.3

Median

53.0

Sources ranking him

3/4

Agreement

High

SourceRank / ADP
Yahoo ADP50.0
Sleeper ADP60.0
RTSports ADP53.0
Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (live)unranked

The sources that ranked him disagree by 10.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 4.2).

Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.

Week-to-week, 2025

Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.

Weeks with a line

16

PPR / game

14.3

Std dev

6.5

Coeff. of variation

0.45

Boom rate

31% (5/16)

Bust rate

13% (2/16)

Best week

25.5 wk 6

Worst week

1.9 wk 12

Recent form — last 4 games with a line

14.8 PPR per game over weeks 15, 16, 17, 18+0.5 against his season average.

Every week (16 lines)
WkOppPPRTgtRecYdsCarRuYdTDRZ
1MIN9.55312175301
2DET13.9336126311
3DAL10.84345133303
4LV16.06422143814
6WAS25.532671410811
7NO20.811141912417
8BAL15.12226114515
10NYG14.88518138002
11MIN9.0100219003
12PIT1.9111481501
13PHI20.821131812511
14GB11.24319136305
15CLE22.611-2189822
16GB9.02212135803
17SF21.9322595421
18DET5.8218104001

The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0036275. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.

This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (RB: boom ≥ 20, bust ≤ 8) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.

Advanced usage & efficiency

Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.

Red-zone opportunity

Scoring upside

RZ targets

1

RZ carries

47

RZ TDs

9

aDOT

Concept EPA / target

0.027

Classified targets

50

Catch residual

YAC over expected

Most-run concept: SCREEN on 56.0% of his classified targets.

Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.

How the model gets there

The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.

Projected games

14.0

Half-PPR (season)

169.4

PPR (season)

184.9

Confidence

high

Proj targets

39.8

Proj receptions

30.9

Proj rec yards

248

Proj rec TDs

1.3

Proj carries

184.2

Proj rush yards

809

Proj rush TDs

7.0

Proj pass yards

0

Proj pass TDs

0.0

Proj INTs

0.0

Touchdown regression

He actually scored 10 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of -1.7. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.

What this projection was built from

16 g in 2025, 13.9 car/g, 3 tgt/g, 58% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), RB1 on depth chart, age 28, -1.7 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity

fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.

What this page is standing on

Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.

  • Identity join: Resolved to gsis 00-0036275 via the 2025 nflverse season file. The weekly log and advanced splits are keyed on that id.
  • Market ADP: A bundled snapshot of platform ADP, not a live feed. Shown for comparison and never read by the projection model.
  • Headshot: Resolved from exact-name.
  • Vitals: Height, weight, college and jersey are read from nflverse and keyed on gsis id 00-0036275 — not on name. Name keying matches players to relatives who share one: "Marvin Harrison Jr." also matches his father's 1996 row, and whichever came first in the file would win.
  • Not shown: draft round and pick. The bundled player file carries them on roughly 48% of rows and populates them late, so a blank is equally consistent with a genuine undrafted free agent and with a first-rounder nobody has ingested yet. The model’s own three-state read is used instead, above.

Model run caveats

  • No usable red-zone RECEIVING fit for QB — receiving touchdowns at that position come from the shrunk per-target rate alone.
  • Rookie draft capital on this run: 82 drafted (projected from round/pick), 141 confirmed undrafted, 177 with capital UNKNOWN.
  • 177 of 400 rookie projections (44%) have NO KNOWN DRAFT CAPITAL because this draft class has not been ingested by any source the model can read. For those players the draft-capital path did not run: a first-round pick and a camp arm receive the same number, separated only by depth-chart order. Those projections are flagged `isPositionalFloor` and must be read as a floor for the role, not as a valuation of the player.

How the model works

Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.

Where it loses

Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.

Model Rankings

Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.