TE · BUF · Bye 7
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
Projection
5.9
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
105.3
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
113.5
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
-8.2
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Market is aggressive
Risk / reliability
Medium Risk
Reliability
66 / 99
Coverage
80%
Live board
His route-concept mix is worth 0.85 EPA per target against a 0.05 league baseline. His most common concept is quick out at 17% of targets. He is used in higher-value ways than his target count alone suggests.
Model rank
140.27
Market
105.3
Confidence
high
2026 week 1
The BALLDONTLIE weekly outlook is unavailable for this player right now. The rest of the profile remains live.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
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Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
Dalton Kincaid · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
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Measured game log
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Dalton Kincaid yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Position-relative
Target Command & Offensive Role
70
Strong
Top 19% at TE
Replacement + Draft Economics
88
Elite
Top 11% at TE
TD / High-Value Opportunity
61
Average
Top 35% at TE
Receiving Talent
92
Elite
Top 1% at TE
Offensive Ecosystem
75
Strong
Top 6% at TE
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
65
Average
Top 20% at TE
Games
12
Half-PPR
87.1
Total TD
5
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Value Over Replacement
-20.5
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
-14
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
D
Reach
Market
105.3
FFT value
113.5
Board Δ
-8.2
Week 15
vs CHI
Rank 18th
NeutralWeek 16
@ DEN
Rank 16th
GreatWeek 17
@ MIA
Rank 4th
EliteEvery dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Deep research dossier
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
No pre-registered call was made on Dalton Kincaid. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
Games
12
PPR pts
126.1
Half-PPR pts
87.1
PPR / game
10.5
Receiving
Targets
49
Receptions
39
Rec yards
571
Rec TDs
5
Target share
10.2%
Air yards share
12.9%
WOPR
0.24
Rushing
Carries
0
Rush yards
0
Rush TDs
0
Yards / carry
—
Passing
Pass yards
0
Pass TDs
0
Interceptions
0
nflverse season totals for 2025, joined on normalised name and position (gsis 00-0038933). These are actuals — nothing here is modelled.
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
105.3
Median
99.0
Sources ranking him
3/3
Agreement
Medium
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | 99.0 |
| Sleeper ADP | 97.0 |
| RTSports ADP | 120.0 |
The sources that ranked him disagree by 23.0 picks between highest and lowest (standard deviation 10.4).
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Weeks with a line
12
PPR / game
10.5
Std dev
6.3
Coeff. of variation
0.60
Boom rate
25% (3/12)
Bust rate
17% (2/12)
Best week
22.1 wk 9
Worst week
0.0 wk 16
Recent form — last 4 games with a line
7.1 PPR per game over weeks 14, 15, 16, 18 — -3.4 against his season average.
| Wk | Opp | PPR | Tgt | Rec | Yds | Car | RuYd | TD | RZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BAL | 14.8 | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | NYJ | 7.7 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | MIA | 17.6 | 6 | 5 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | NO | 9.8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5 | NE | 16.8 | 6 | 6 | 108 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | CAR | 3.3 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | KC | 22.1 | 6 | 6 | 101 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | MIA | 5.7 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | CIN | 14.1 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 15 | NE | 6.4 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | CLE | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | NYJ | 7.8 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The weekly LINES are measured: 2025 game logs, joined on gsis id 00-0038933. Everything derived from them above — per-game, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, boom and bust rates, recent form — is computed by us and carries the FFT model (beta) label. It is not an observed stat.
This whole block is on the PPR scale, including the thresholds — the artifact publishes boom and bust in PPR (TE: boom ≥ 15, bust ≤ 5) and converting only the points would leave the rates measured against a different ruler than the one they were defined on. The hero above is half-PPR because that is what the model ranks on. Two rulers, each labelled, rather than one silently mixed. Rates need at least 4 games to carry weight; recent form is the last 4.
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
RZ targets
11
RZ carries
—
RZ TDs
5
aDOT
9.1
Concept EPA / target
0.848
Classified targets
60
Catch residual
13.219
YAC over expected
1.03
Most-run concept: QUICK_OUT on 16.7% of his classified targets.
Every field is derived by FFT from openly-licensed nflverse play-by-play, or taken from the free public NFL Next Gen Stats endpoint. No licensed trial data (Sportradar, BALLDONTLIE) is included, which is why this file can be committed and shipped with the build. Red zone: Plays snapped inside the opponent 20-yard line. Red-zone usage measures opportunity; this repo’s own backtest shows it adds little on top of plain volume, so it is retained as context and is deliberately not described as an edge.
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
Projected games
14.3
Half-PPR (season)
83.7
PPR (season)
103.3
Confidence
medium
Proj targets
54.8
Proj receptions
39.2
Proj rec yards
447
Proj rec TDs
3.2
Proj carries
0.9
Proj rush yards
2
Proj rush TDs
0.1
Proj pass yards
0
Proj pass TDs
0.0
Proj INTs
0.0
Touchdown regression
He actually scored 5 touchdowns last season. Against his measured opportunity the model expects a change of -1.8. The gap between what a player scored and what his opportunity implies is one of the four signals the edge engine reads.
What this projection was built from
12 g in 2025, 4.1 tgt/g, 37% snaps (regressed to the role, not the position), TE1 on depth chart, age 27, -1.8 TD vs 2025 on red-zone opportunity
fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital was not resolved for this player, which the model treats as unknown rather than as undrafted.
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
Model run caveats
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.
