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Carson Beck is not currently in the scored edge pool.
Full analysis
Position: QuarterbackP Tier
Carson Beck
QB · ARI · Bye 14
FFT9956
Elite Profile
Calibrated public rating
RAW 54 · 51% cov
Projection
10.3
Half-PPR / game
Market ADP
195.0
Consensus overall
FFT fair value
239.0
Calibrated pick
Draft delta
-44.0
Market minus FFT
Draft recommendation
Market is aggressive
Risk / reliability
High Risk
22
Reliability
22 / 99
Coverage
40%
2026 week 2
Weekly Outlook
Our projection
0.0
Weighted weekly consensus
BDL projection
—
BALLDONTLIE weekly
Sleeper projection
—
Sleeper weekly
Game status
Inactive
No injury description reported
Game market
Total — · Spread —
Implied team total — · cross-book median
Live draft market
ADP 169.9 · Rostered 0.6%
BDL change 0.0%
BALLDONTLIE data checked 9/20/2026, 6:34:50 PM ET. Sportsbook values are consensus context, not betting advice.
Measured 2026 · Regular season
Season Production
Loading 2026 results…
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points · Preseason excluded. Missing stats are not zeroes.
2026 / Player Game Center
Every play has a story.
Carson Beck · Recorded performance, game context, fantasy takeaways.
Loading game data…
Measured game log
Weekly Performance
Actual BALLDONTLIE box scores · FFT-computed fantasy points. Missing weeks are never filled with zeroes.
No 2026 regular-season stat line recorded for Carson Beck yet.
This view will populate automatically when measured games enter the data spine.
FFT Newsroom
Latest news for Carson Beck
Position-relative
FFT99 Pillar Scores
Fantasy Scoring Dominance
63
Average
63
Top 28% at QB
Rushing Leverage
53
Watch
53
Top 31% at QB
Replacement + Draft Economics
63
Average
63
Top 37% at QB
Passing Engine
53
Watch
53
Top 32% at QB
Offensive Ecosystem
57
Average
57
Top 37% at QB
Fantasy Playoff Schedule
51
Watch
51
Top 58% at QB
Player Profile
Fantasy Scoring Dominance63
Rushing Leverage53
Replacement + Draft Economics63
Passing Engine53
Offensive Ecosystem57
Fantasy Playoff Schedule51
Games
—
Half-PPR
—
Total TD
—
Model Component Contributions
The measured inputs doing the most work inside this grade.
Proj Ppg
26%
Value Over Replacement
24%
Rush Ypg
11%
Td Expectation
7%
Vegas
5%
Play Caller
5%
Yards Per Attempt
5%
Rush Td Exp
4%
Draft Economics
Value Over Replacement
-195.4
proj. half-PPR pts
Rank Delta
-57
position spots vs ADP
Value Grade
D
Reach
reachfair valuesteal
Market
195.0
FFT value
239.0
Board Δ
-44.0
Playoff Schedule
Week 15
vs NYJ
Rank 2nd
EliteWeek 16
@ NO
Rank 25th
ToughWeek 17
vs LV
Rank 17th
NeutralFFT99 vs ADP
Every dot is a real position peer with a market price.
Compare Players
Deep research dossier
Evidence, history and model transparency
The decision dashboard ends above. Open only the research sections you need below—the full evidence remains available without overwhelming the player overview.
The call record
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
The call record
Claims written down before the season, sealed at registration, and graded in public — misses kept.
No pre-registered call was made on Carson Beck. The record holds 29 calls in total, selected from the board by signal strength and divergence — most players do not clear that bar, and silence here means we did not stake a claim on him, not that he graded badly.
2025 production
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
2025 production
What he actually did last season. Measured, not projected.
No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
What the market says
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
What the market says
Every ADP source we hold, side by side, and where our model sits against them.
Consensus ADP
195.0
Median
195.0
Sources ranking him
1/4
Agreement
—
| Source | Rank / ADP |
|---|---|
| Yahoo ADP | unranked |
| Sleeper ADP | unranked |
| RTSports ADP | 195.0 |
| Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (live) | unranked |
Mean and median are computed across the sources that actually ranked him — an unranked source never enters the average, because a sentinel treated as a pick number would drag a real player hundreds of slots. Spread, deviation and agreement are null under two ranked sources rather than 0, since one source cannot agree with itself. The FFT model rank is our own output and is never folded in as if it were an outside source.
Week-to-week, 2025
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
Week-to-week, 2025
Consistency and range — the part a season total hides.
No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
Advanced usage & efficiency
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
Advanced usage & efficiency
Route concepts, red-zone opportunity, and separation-adjusted catch rate.
No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
How the model gets there
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
How the model gets there
The component projection behind the headline number, and what it was built from.
Projected games
6.2
Half-PPR (season)
63.9
PPR (season)
63.9
Confidence
low
Proj targets
0.0
Proj receptions
0.0
Proj rec yards
0
Proj rec TDs
0.0
Proj carries
13.7
Proj rush yards
62
Proj rush TDs
0.7
Proj pass yards
892
Proj pass TDs
6.0
Proj INTs
2.6
What this projection was built from
rookie (pick 65, round 3 inferred), QB draft-capital baseline, 6.2 g projected, QB3 on depth chart, no 2025 NFL sample, no red-zone data
fft-projection-2.3.0-beta. The model reads measured production, opportunity and age, and reads no ADP field at any stage — so it can disagree with the market, which is the only reason a disagreement is worth anything. Draft capital: drafted. No red-zone data fed this projection.
What this page is standing on
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
What this page is standing on
Which sources answered for this player, and which did not.
- Identity join: No 2025 nflverse row matched this player, so no gsis id could be resolved. The weekly log and the advanced splits are both gsis-keyed, so they are unavailable for him. This is a join gap, not a statement about the player.
- Market ADP: A bundled snapshot of platform ADP, not a live feed. Shown for comparison and never read by the projection model.
- Headshot: Resolved from exact-name.
- Vitals: No nflverse player row resolved for this gsis id, so no vitals are shown. Nothing is guessed from the name.
- Not shown: draft round and pick. The bundled player file carries them on roughly 48% of rows and populates them late, so a blank is equally consistent with a genuine undrafted free agent and with a first-rounder nobody has ingested yet. The model’s own three-state read is used instead, above.
Model run caveats
- No usable red-zone RECEIVING fit for QB — receiving touchdowns at that position come from the shrunk per-target rate alone.
- Rookie draft capital on this run: 82 drafted (projected from round/pick), 141 confirmed undrafted, 177 with capital UNKNOWN.
- 177 of 400 rookie projections (44%) have NO KNOWN DRAFT CAPITAL because this draft class has not been ingested by any source the model can read. For those players the draft-capital path did not run: a first-round pick and a camp arm receive the same number, separated only by depth-chart order. Those projections are flagged `isPositionalFloor` and must be read as a floor for the role, not as a valuation of the player.
How the model works
Inputs, method, and the forbidden-inputs list. It reads no ADP at any stage.
Where it loses
Pre-registered calls, graded in public, misses kept on the page.
Model Rankings
Every player, with the model's BUY / FADE call against consensus ADP built into the board.
Several blocks above are empty for this player because no 2025 statistical row resolved. That is a gap in what we hold, not a verdict on him.